Morning brief 7:50 AM ET

Memory Report — 2026-06-30

SK Hynix's decision to slow its HBM4 line conversions and retool capacity back toward commodity DDR5 is the cleanest signal yet that even the AI memory leader now sees richer margins in the shortage it helped create. Reports in South Korea that SK Hynix is slowing the pace of converting production lines to sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory, or HBM4, and shifting more capacity toward commodity DRAM have drawn market attention. The logic is cold arithmetic: DDR5 operating margins are projected by analysts to approach 90 percent this year, challenging HBM's legendary pricing power on a per-wafer-area basis, even though HBM commands a far higher per-gigabyte price. The practical effect is to extend the squeeze. New wafer fabs from SK Hynix (M15X), Micron (Idaho), and Samsung (Pyeongtaek P5) will not add meaningful DRAM capacity until mid-2027 to 2028.

The pricing backdrop remains historic. Per TrendForce's finalized survey published June 1, conventional DRAM contract prices rose 93 to 98 percent quarter over quarter in Q1 2026, buyers signing fresh contracts at the start of the year paid roughly double what they paid three months earlier. For Q2, the firm guided to a further 58 to 63 percent rise in conventional DRAM, with NAND now leading the move. Conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 58% to 63% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND Flash contract prices are forecast to rise by 70% to 75%. NAND Flash's roughly 75% QoQ increase outpaces DRAM for the first time in the current cycle, while demand for enterprise SSDs hasn't let up as large-scale generative AI deployments continue to absorb the lion's share of production capacity. The distortion is most visible in legacy: Counterpoint Research reports that DDR4 spot prices have hit $2.10 per gigabit, which now exceeds advanced HBM3e at $1.70 per gigabit.

On HBM, the supply roster is now settled. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang confirmed on June 5, 2026 that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all passed certification to supply HBM4 high-bandwidth memory for the company's next-generation Vera Rubin AI accelerator platform. Supply-chain analysts cited by TechTimes estimate SK Hynix holds roughly 60 to 70% of Vera Rubin HBM4 volume, with Samsung capturing approximately 25 to 30% and Micron supplying the remainder. The capital is following the demand. SK Hynix filed with the SEC to raise approximately $29.65 billion through an American depositary receipt listing on the Nasdaq, in what would rank among the largest share sales in history; trading is expected to begin July 10, with up to 17.79 million new shares to be issued. SK Hynix said it will direct all proceeds toward capital expenditures for AI memory chip production.

One cloud worth flagging: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which control nearly 90% of global DRAM, face a class-action lawsuit in California federal court, accused of colluding to restrict traditional DRAM production under the guise of a shift to AI HBM, driving up prices by approximately 700% over the past four years.

Watch the SK Hynix ADR debut on July 10 and its Q2 print on July 29 for the market's verdict on whether HBM pricing power and the DDR5 pivot can coexist. The single most important data point ahead is TrendForce's Q3 contract survey: another large gain confirms the rally has room, while two consecutive months of declining DDR5 contract prices would be the first real warning the cycle is turning.

June 30th, 2026

Memory Report — 2026-06-30

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