Morning brief · 10:18 AM ET. Afternoon updates post on their own page when the news warrants.

Morning brief 10:18 AM ET

Memory Report — 2026-07-05

Writing the brief now.

Micron poured concrete on the AI-memory supercycle this weekend, breaking ground on a 1.5 trillion yen HBM expansion in Japan just as the sector shakes off its sharpest pullback of the year.

Micron on Saturday broke ground on the expansion of its factory in Higashihiroshima, a 1.5 trillion yen ($9.3 billion) undertaking to produce advanced memory chips, with the facility making high-bandwidth memory crucial for AI processors like Nvidia's and equipment installation scheduled to begin in the second half of 2028. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has allocated up to 500 billion yen to help cover the cost. The subsidy is only part of the state's commitment: along with funds to support research and development, the Japanese government has earmarked roughly 775 billion yen for the U.S. company to date. This is one leg of a global buildout. Micron is building two leading-edge fabs in Boise and in January held a groundbreaking ceremony for a $100 billion production site outside Syracuse, New York. On product, the story is further along than the fab timeline suggests: HBM4 built on 1-beta DRAM is already in high-volume production and shipping to lead customers, while HBM4E development is underway on 1-gamma DRAM with volume production targeted for calendar 2027.

The pricing backdrop stays firmly in suppliers' favor, though the rate of ascent is cooling off a record base. TrendForce's latest survey shows the DRAM market will remain extremely tight in 3Q26, but weaker consumer demand and a higher comparison base are expected to moderate contract price increases to 13 to 18% quarter over quarter. On PC memory the house actually raised its outlook: TrendForce lifted its Q3 2026 PC DRAM forecast to 15 to 20% from 8 to 13%, projected Q4 growth of 3 to 8%, and expects server DRAM to rise 13 to 18% on strong demand and tight supply. NAND is on the same trajectory, just gentler: demand continues to be driven by AI inference and large-scale data center deployments, but with contract prices already at record highs and consumer price tolerance maxed out, NAND flash contract prices are projected to rise 10 to 15% quarter over quarter, a noticeably slower pace than prior quarters.

None of that stopped a brutal week for the stocks. SK Hynix closed down 14.6% Thursday to 2,187,000 won, its worst single-day drop in years, while Samsung fell 9.1% and the two dragged the Kospi down 7.9%. The selloff followed reports that Meta is building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute rather than keep expanding its own data centers, which investors read as a signal that memory demand might not grow as fast as expected. The panic looks like positioning, not fundamentals: Micron's fundamentals cut against the glut narrative, with fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion up 346% year over year, Q4 guided to $50 billion, and the stock trading at roughly 7x forward earnings. Prices snapped back Friday, with Samsung up 6.2% and SK Hynix up 4.6% as the Kospi recovered nearly 3%.

Two structural threads to watch. On the competitive front, Korean media report that CXMT is testing a bonded DRAM trial line in Hefei aimed at high-performance DRAM without EUV, a technique that builds the memory array and peripheral circuits on separate wafers, then bonds them, enabling ultra-high-density DRAM using only multi-patterned DUV. Samsung is developing bonded DRAM under its "B1b" project and SK Hynix is advancing similar technology, but some assessments suggest CXMT may currently hold a lead in both the technology and its development pace. Treat that as an unconfirmed report for now. On the capital front, all eyes turn to July 10, when SK Hynix plans to raise roughly $29.4 billion in what would be the largest ADR listing in recorded market history, surpassing Alibaba's $21.8 billion New York debut in 2014. Samsung's July 7 earnings and that Nasdaq debut will be the next real tests of whether buyers are ready to re-underwrite the memory trade.

July 5th, 2026

Memory Report — 2026-07-05

Sources