Morning brief · 8:31 AM ET. Afternoon updates post on their own page when the news warrants.

Morning brief 8:31 AM ET

Memory Report — 2026-07-07

Samsung's preliminary second-quarter operating profit landed at 89.4 trillion won, roughly $58 billion, the largest single-quarter operating profit any technology company has ever posted, and the memory shortage that produced it shows no sign of easing.

The Q2 result marks an 1,810% surge that surpassed the combined profits of the previous three years, driven by soaring DRAM and NAND prices amid an AI-fueled supply crunch, with revenue up 129% to 171 trillion won and memory contract prices climbing more than 40% quarter-over-quarter. The pricing behind that number is stark: DRAM average selling prices rose 44 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q2, while NAND flash climbed 53 percent, according to Citi Research. This is the third straight quarter Samsung has broken its own record, and management has told investors the semiconductor unit's full-year 2026 profit could exceed the company's entire cumulative earnings from four decades of chipmaking. The one soft spot is instructive rather than contrary: Samsung's smartphone division is expected to see a sharp decline in Q2 profitability because higher DRAM and NAND prices significantly increased production costs, benefiting the semiconductor business while the handset unit pays the price. That is the shortage transmitting through the supply chain exactly as a structural squeeze should.

The forward pricing signal is arguably the bigger story. UBS reiterated its Buy on Micron, raising its third-quarter DDR contract pricing forecast to a 32% quarter-over-quarter rise, up from 17%, and lifting its fourth-quarter forecast to an 18% increase from 12%. Nomura is in the same camp, with forecasts that commodity DRAM prices will climb another 24% and NAND 25% in the September quarter. Estimates that keep getting revised upward, not down, are the tell of a market where demand is running ahead of supply.

Supply-side moves confirm the operators believe it too. Micron broke ground Saturday on a ¥1.5 trillion ($9.3 billion) expansion of its Hiroshima factory to make chips such as high-bandwidth memory crucial for AI processors, with first shipments targeted for around summer 2028 and Japan's METI backing roughly one-third of the capital cost. On the demand side, Micron keeps locking in offtake: its long-term agreement with Ford, announced July 6, follows a similar deal signed with General Motors on July 1, both among 16 such agreements Micron discussed on its fiscal Q3 call. DRAM prices have risen roughly 70% since December, according to S&P Global Mobility, pushing automakers into direct competition with data-center operators for tightening supply.

The week's marquee event is SK Hynix's US debut. The company launched the marketing for its Nasdaq ADR listing on Monday, seeking to raise $28.21 billion, with each ADR representing a tenth of a common share and pricing expected Thursday ahead of a Friday trading start. Cornerstone investors, including Baillie Gifford Overseas, Coatue-managed funds, and Situational Awareness Partners, have collectively indicated interest in buying as much as $7 billion of the ADRs. SK Hynix holds about 60% of the HBM market, according to Counterpoint.

Watch the SK Hynix pricing print Thursday and the trading debut Friday, both read directly as the market's verdict on how long the AI memory boom runs. Samsung's full divisional breakdown on July 30 will be the next hard data point.

July 7th, 2026

Memory Report — 2026-07-07

Sources