MR. Reports

July 11th, 2026

Morning brief · 10:03 AM ET. Afternoon updates post on their own page when the news warrants.

Morning brief 10:03 AM ET

Memory Report — 2026-07-11

SK Hynix rang the Nasdaq bell on Friday and priced the largest US listing ever by a foreign company, then its CEO told the room the memory shortage will outlast the decade, a one-two punch that captured exactly where this market sits.

SK Hynix listed its American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq, raising $26.5 billion in what ranks as the largest US share sale ever completed by a foreign company, surpassing the $25 billion Alibaba raised in 2014. The deal priced at $149 per ADR across 177.9 million receipts, each representing one-tenth of a common share, with demand exceeding supply by more than seven to one. Appetite showed up in the tape: the ADRs jumped 15% above their offering price, trading at $171.41 by early Friday afternoon in New York. About $5 billion in ADRs went to three cornerstone investors, Baillie Gifford, Coatue Management, and Situational Awareness Partners. The listing matters beyond the headline number because the global HBM supply chain runs through Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, all of which count Nvidia as a major customer, and buying into that trio directly through US exchanges had been largely out of reach for American investors until now. The proceeds are earmarked for capacity: SK Hynix plans to expand manufacturing in South Korea and buy equipment, including EUV lithography scanners. Trading moves to the permanent SKHY ticker Monday.

The bull case got its clearest articulation from the top. CEO Kwak Noh-jung said the industry is heading for its worst-ever supply shortage in 2027, forecasting that demand will continue to exceed the company's ability to produce well into the next decade despite aggressive capacity expansion. He noted customers are signing long-term contracts because they believe the shortage will last longer. The macro backdrop supports him: Nvidia's Jensen Huang said last month AI memory shortages would continue for several years, and UBS expects the global DRAM industry to remain undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028.

On pricing, the rally is real but decelerating, which is the honest read here. TrendForce forecasts conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18% QoQ in 3Q26 and NAND Flash 10 to 15%, moderating from prior quarters as record-high prices push consumer customers to their affordability limit. That is a step down from the roughly 60 to 75% jumps in 2Q26, not a reversal. Suppliers continue to prioritize capacity toward higher-margin AI and server products, limiting wafers to the open market, even as consumer wafer demand weakens. Contrarian tip: some Taiwan channel voices see steeper moves, with ADATA's chairman citing supplier notices of 20 to 30% DRAM increases and 35 to 40% for NAND in Q3.

The earnings math frames the setup. Micron's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue jumped to $41.46 billion from $9.30 billion a year earlier, with gross margin at 85% and net income of $28.24 billion versus $1.89 billion. The company is locking in multi-year take-or-pay strategic customer agreements, with about $22 billion of deposits and commitments supporting an estimated $27 billion of 2026 net capex. On the HBM front, Micron began volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12H in Q1 2026 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin and has shipped 48GB 16H samples, while SK Hynix plans to begin mass production of its 16-layer HBM4 in the third quarter of 2026.

Watch Monday's SKHY open for whether the premium to Seoul holds, and next week's Q3 contract settlements for confirmation that the deceleration is orderly rather than the first crack in a two-year climb.

Sources

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