Morning brief 9:33 AM ET

Memory Report — 2026-07-13

Here it is:

South Korea's memory rally hit its first real speed bump Monday as SK Hynix cratered 15.4% in Seoul, its worst single-day fall on record, days after a blockbuster Nasdaq debut, a reminder that even the tightest supercycle trades in both directions.

SK Hynix shares tumbled more than 15% in Seoul on Monday to clock their worst day after the chipmaker's strong Nasdaq debut, closing 15.4% lower and posting the largest fall in its history. The move was mechanical as much as fundamental. The company raised more than $26 billion last week through a sale of American Depositary Receipts priced at $149 apiece, after its Korean-listed shares more than tripled in value this year; the ADRs opened 14% above the offer price at $170 before closing their debut up 12.8%. That new listing effectively created a second benchmark, and money rotated. The decline reflected a mix of profit-taking and uncertainty over how the U.S.-listed shares should be valued relative to the Korean stock, with analysts saying the ADR debut has created a new benchmark for assessing the company's valuation. Losses in SK Hynix and Samsung dragged South Korea's Kospi index down 9%, triggering a 20-minute trading halt.

Adding fuel: a local brokerage note. One brokerage forecast the chipmaker to log 60.4 trillion won in profit in the April-to-June period, falling short of the 65 trillion won consensus, attributing the shortfall to SK Hynix's heavier reliance on HBM, which is expected to result in slower average selling price growth. Read that carefully. The "miss" is a mix story, not a demand story. One analyst estimated DRAM and NAND ASPs in the second quarter rose by about 30% and 50% respectively from the prior quarter, and expects ASPs to increase at roughly the market average starting in the third quarter as HBM4 enters full-scale mass production and shipments.

The underlying market has not softened. TrendForce predicts server DRAM contract prices will rise 13-18% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q26, with NAND Flash contract prices projected to increase 10-15% QoQ. The pace is cooling off a torrid base, not reversing. Top DRAM makers are prioritizing server production, severely squeezing consumer supply, and limited near-term capacity additions from Taiwanese makers cannot fill the gap left by the majors' exit, so the structural shortage is unlikely to ease soon. On HBM4, the demand pull remains extraordinary: Jensen Huang confirmed in June that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all qualified and in production for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, with the first systems scheduled to ship in Q3 2026. Analysts peg SK Hynix at roughly 60 to 70 percent of the HBM4 volume allocated to Vera Rubin, with Samsung at approximately 25 to 30 percent and Micron supplying the remainder.

Capacity keeps chasing that demand. SK Hynix plans to invest 100 trillion won ($64.37 billion) in South Korea, with 80 trillion won earmarked for its M17 NAND plant and 20 trillion for the P&T7 advanced packaging facility, and M17 operations targeted for the first half of 2029. The lead times tell the story: this supply arrives in years, not quarters. Watch SK Hynix's formal Q2 results, due later this month, to see whether the HBM-mix "miss" narrative holds or the ASP baseline resets higher into HBM4's ramp.

July 13th, 2026

Memory Report — 2026-07-13

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