MR. Daily Briefs

July 4th, 2026

Afternoon update · 5:11 PM ET. Each edition has its own page.

Afternoon update 5:11 PM ET

Memory Report — 2026-07-04

(1) the July 2 Chungcheong $252.5B investment package with dedicated HBM packaging and SK hynix's M17 NAND fab, (2) Apple's lobbying to buy Chinese CXMT/YMTC memory as a policy/demand-relief angle, (3) the June 25 DRAM price-fixing class action, and (4) the memory-stock/ETF selloff with Jefferies price forecasts. These form a strong follow-up brief.

South Korea moved to hardwire the memory supercycle into national policy on Thursday, unveiling a 392 trillion won ($252.5 billion) investment package aimed squarely at the industry's tightest bottleneck: HBM packaging.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will build new high-bandwidth memory packaging fabs in South Korea's Chungcheong region as part of the combined 392 trillion won package the government detailed on July 2, with Samsung Group investing 140 trillion won including 56 trillion won by Samsung Electronics for a dedicated HBM fab and packaging facility, while SK hynix invests 100 trillion won to build a NAND flash and advanced packaging hub in Cheongju. The targeting matters as much as the size. HBM packaging capacity, not just wafer output, has constrained how fast AI accelerator supply can scale. On the NAND side, SK hynix will allocate 80 trillion won to its M17 fab, which will produce NAND flash memory, and 20 trillion won to the P&T7 facility for advanced chip assembly, with construction beginning next year and operations targeted for the first half of 2029. This is a late-decade capacity story, not near-term relief.

The consumer-side pressure is now spilling into policy and the courts. Apple is in talks to buy memory from Chinese semiconductor firms ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies, though discussions are ongoing and no deal has been finalized. Apple CEO Tim Cook has spoken with Trump administration officials about using chips sourced from the companies in devices meant for the Chinese market, which would free up chips from other suppliers for the U.S. The catch is geopolitical: CXMT sits on the Chinese Military Company Blacklist, the 1260H list of firms the Pentagon believes have links to the People's Liberation Army. The lobbying follows real cost pain, as Apple raised prices on Macs, iPads, and other products by $100 to $500 in late June, its first such broad increases in years, to offset soaring memory costs.

Meanwhile, the shortage narrative is being tested in a courtroom. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were sued on June 25 in the Northern District of California, where 17 plaintiffs accuse the three of illegally coordinating to restrict DRAM supply and inflate prices roughly 700% over four years, invoking Section 1 of the Sherman Act against companies that together hold around 90% of the global DRAM market. The class alleges the trio coordinated their exit from DDR3 and DDR4 production and pivoted to HBM, cutting conventional RAM in defiance of "all economic and business logic." The suppliers frame the same facts as rational capacity allocation, and the companies have not yet responded in court, with the allegations unproven.

The tape wobbled alongside the headlines. The Roundhill Memory ETF slumped by double digits as top constituents Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital tumbled, with the fund falling to $59.25, its lowest since June 10 and 27% below its all-time high. Analysts largely read it as positioning, not fundamentals. Jefferies expects DRAM prices to rise another 40% to 50% in the third quarter and a further 30% to 40% in the fourth, with no meaningful relief before 2028. Watch whether Washington grants Apple its CXMT waiver, a decision that would mark China's re-entry into the Western memory supply chain and set a precedent others would rush to follow.

Sources

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