Afternoon update 5:41 PM ET

Memory Report — 2026-07-09

the CXMT $4.3B China IPO launching next week (dated today), the memory-selloff reversal today with Western Digital/Seagate/Micron/SanDisk rallying, and the four-way global capacity race (Micron Hiroshima, Kioxia/SanDisk 10th-gen NAND, SK Hynix M17). These are distinct from the SK Hynix listing and Samsung earnings already published. Let me write the brief.

CXMT set the stage for a genuine fourth force in memory, opening subscriptions next week for a $4.3 billion Shanghai listing that hands China's DRAM champion the capital to press its assault on an already sold-out market.

The firm, which competes with Samsung and SK Hynix, will open investor subscriptions for its public offering next week, offering 6.688 billion shares with half earmarked for cornerstone investors. An overallotment option would lift the total to 7.69 billion shares, representing roughly 11.3% of the company. The scale of the underlying business is what makes this list-and-expand a live threat to the incumbents. In the first quarter, CXMT reported revenue of $7.3 billion, roughly 700% year-over-year growth, with operating margins near 70%. SemiAnalysis believes full-year 2026 revenue could exceed $50 billion. On capacity, the gap is closing fast: by the end of 2026, CXMT is expected to reach roughly 350,000 wafer starts per month, only modestly below Micron's estimated 385,000, positioning it close to becoming the industry's third-largest memory supplier by wafer capacity. The caveat matters, though. CXMT's cost per bit on DDR5 remains more than 30% above the three leaders, meaning its margin surge is primarily driven by pricing rather than a material improvement in competitiveness or cost structure.

The listing frames a broader four-way land grab. Micron is investing about $9.2 billion in Hiroshima, Japan, to build a next-generation HBM base targeting 2028 and beyond. SK Hynix is spending roughly $52.4 billion on the M17 NAND base in Cheongju, targeting operation in the first half of 2029. On the flash side, Kioxia and SanDisk began production of their 10th-generation 3D flash memory at the K2 facility in Kitakami, Japan, on July 3, part of a multi-year push to meet AI-driven NAND demand. Counterpoint pegs first-quarter NAND share at Samsung 29% and SK Hynix 18%, with Kioxia, Micron, SanDisk, and YMTC all clustered at 13-14%, a five-point spread between second and sixth place that leaves the field wide open.

The tape, meanwhile, snapped back. After a bruising stretch for the cohort, memory names rallied hard into today's session, with prediction markets pricing an 84% probability that Micron trades up on July 9 and a 60% chance of closing above $1,100 by month-end. The bull-bear split is sharpening: the bear case centers on memory-cycle pricing risk, rising Chinese competition from CXMT, and rich valuations after the run. The counterpoint is duration. Following Micron's latest results, BofA pushed its super-cycle timeline out to the end of 2027, with a scenario extending to 2030, and SK Hynix's chairman has warned global memory supply is likely to stay roughly 20% below demand through 2030.

Watch CXMT's subscription open next week and whether Apple's reported talks to source from CXMT and YMTC firm up, the clearest test yet of whether Chinese supply can dent the incumbents' pricing power.

July 9th, 2026

Memory Report — 2026-07-09

Sources